The Stel Salaried Pensioners Organization wishes to thank The Hamilton Spectator for permission to post the following article by Reporter Naomi Powell published in the June 28, 2006 edition

 

A Dwarf Among Titans

Stelco's too small to be a main course in steel industry but could become dessert for a larger buyer

By Naomi Powell
The Hamilton Spectator
(Jun 28, 2006)

The massive merger of Arcelor SA and Mittal is expected to send mid-sized steel companies on a shopping spree, making it more likely that Stelco will be snapped up by a larger player.

A combined Arcelor-Mittal would create an industry giant able to churn out 120 million tonnes annually. That's enough to dwarf a cluster of the titan's nearest rivals, which each produce around 20 to 30 million tonnes of steel per year.

These mid-sized firms won't want to wither in the shadow of a giant for long, analysts say.

"I think the pressure is on to create what I'll call global champions," said Randy Cousins, a steel analyst with BMO Nesbitt Burns in Toronto.

"You'll see a mad scramble among the mid-sized comp-anies to bulk up, to increase their girth."

The first stage of the firestorm will likely see mid-sized producers merge with one another in an attempt to catch up with the Arcelor-Mittal combin-ation, added Cousins.

Russia's Severstal, Germany's ThyssenKrupp and Japan's Nippon Steel are just a few of the big-name companies seen as ripe for a merger.

While too small to be a main course Stelco, which produces 4 million tonnes of steel each year, could become dessert for a larger buyer.

Newly minted Stelco CEO Rodney Mott has already said the steelmaker must join the wave of consolidation reshaping the steel industry.

"ThyssenKrupp is looking to coming into North America," said Mott during Stelco's annual general meeting last week.

"Severstal is looking to grow their presence in North America. The Asian companies will probably come to North America. So there's lots of opportunities for consolidation."

Stelco's focus on steel for the profitable automotive and appliance markets make it an attractive target, said Mike Willemse, an analyst with CIBC World Markets in Toronto.

And Stelco's recently forged labour agreement with its unionized workers in Hamilton has likely lessened concerns about historically poor labour-management relations at the steelmaker.

The company also produces enough iron ore through its mining assets to cover 90 per cent of its needs.

"Stelco makes relatively few products," Willemse added. "So its easy for an potential (buyer) to see where it will fit in its overall operations."

But the company is still recovering from two years of bankruptcy protection and could require major capital investment to be made compet-itive, he cautioned.

Dofasco Inc, which sits next door to Stelco, has already been swept up in the consolidation craze by Luxembourg's Arcelor SA. In light of the proposed merger, Arcelor is debating with Mittal Steel over whether to keep Dofasco or flip it to ThyssenKrupp.

Severstal's proposal to buy part of Arcelor was bumped aside on Sunday after Arcelor's board accepted a $33 billion takeover from Mittal Steel.

The Russian firm made a bid for Stelco while it was in bankruptcy protection, but was rejected as a suitor. If the Severstal offer for Arcelor is thwarted in favour of the proposed merger, the Russian steelmaker may take a look at Stelco again, Willemse said.

Shareholders will vote on the proposal Friday.

"If they can't merge with Arcelor, I think they'll be looking for a partner," Willemse said.

"It could be a merger with ThyssenKrupp or it could be a smaller mill that would give them greater access to North America."

Mott's aggressive plans for Stelco could also include the steelmaker becoming a consolidator in its own right.

"I also believe there's some good opportunities within North America to consolidate what I call some of the leftover plants," he said last week. "Companies like Stelco fit into that. Some of them could be merged together."

The highly fragmented nature of the industry has weakened steelmakers' positions at the bargaining table, particularly when it comes to negotiating prices with highly consolidated raw materials suppliers and automakers.

By banding together, steel-makers hope to wield more muscle with these suppliers and customers.

"There is a chance the smaller regional steelmakers could join together," said Stephen Pope, head of equity research at Cantor Fitzgerald in London.

But in the rapidly consolid-ating global steel sector, Pope said, "they will need to be fleet of foot."

npowell@thespec.com

905-526-4620