The Stel Salaried Pensioners Organization wishes to thank The Hamilton Spectator for permission to post the following article by Reporter Steve Arnold, published in the November 24, 2005 edition

Global wave of consolidation hitting Canadian steelmakers

By Steve Arnold, The Hamilton Spectator, (Nov 24, 2005)

The wave of steel industry consolidation Dofasco has been resisting finally washed over the company yesterday with an unwelcome, but rich, offer from a European giant.

It's a development analysts have been expecting for years, and could mark the start of a series of transactions which take over the entire Canadian industry.

"A large flag just went up saying, 'The whole Canadian steel industry is in play now,'" said Peter Warrian of the University of Toronto. "This is a story we're going to be looking at for the next several months. It's entirely conceivable that there will be other potential dancing partners coming into the room.

"The industry has been consolidating globally for three to four years and Canadian companies don't get an exemption from that."

For the past five years, the global steel industry has seen a number of forced marriages. Distressed companies were picked up in bankruptcy after failing to find partners to finance new equipment, pensions and other costs.

Driving that pressure has been consolidation among steel industry suppliers and economic woes for automakers and other customers.

In 2004 alone, according to a study by consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, there were 117 mergers worth $31.4 billion US in the global steel industry, a 130 per cent increase from 2003.

Among those mergers were Arcelor's purchase of a majority interest in Brazilian steelmaker CST and Mittal Steel's purchase of U.S-based International Steel Group. Mittal and Arcelor are now No. 1 and No. 2 in the world steel industry.

Despite that trend, the industry remains highly fragmented with the 10 largest companies accounting for less than 30 per cent of world steel production. Compare that with the iron ore business, where three key suppliers control 80 per cent of the world's seaborne markets and 10 customers account for 80 per cent of the world's demand for auto-industry steel grades.

Canadian companies have generally resisted that trend. Dofasco has been fending off overtures from Arcelor throughout the first half of this year, and Sault Ste. Marie-based Algoma Steel looked for a buyer earlier this year but didn't find a suitable suitor.

Stelco has rebuffed several takeover offers during its tortured restructuring under bankruptcy protection.

Despite their reluctance to march to the altar, Arcelor CEO Guy Dolle said the only real question for small steelmakers in the new world is who their partner will be.

"For all of this industry, if you want to create value for your shareholders, you need to have an industry that is much more consolidated than today," Dolle said. "Canadian steel producers, regardless of their current competitiveness, are not immune to the forces driving consolidation around the globe.

"For Dofasco, the question is not if it should join forces with another industry player, but when, and with whom. We strongly believe that Arcelor is the best partner for Dofasco and that this is the right time."

Kam Hon, analyst with Dominion Bond Rating Service, agrees the offer for Dofasco is only the opening act of a longer drama.

"We can expect more of this," he said. "Consolidation is going to continue in this industry until there are only a few giants left.

"A small steel company is not a viable operation going forward today," he added.

"There will be smaller companies in the future, but it's going to be difficult for them to survive."

Despite Dofasco's reluctance, analysts say the proposed merger could be good for the Hamilton company, especially since it's between firms that already know each other. The companies are partners in a joint venture called DolSol Galva Limited Partnership, a hot-dip galvanizing line in Hamilton.

Dolle said those advantages include access to Arcelor's slab steel production, which Dofasco needs for its high value-added auto steels. In return, Arcelor gets the toehold it lacks in the North American market. It also gains some protection against rising iron ore prices because Dofasco owns the highly productive Quebec Cartier mine in Quebec.

Hon sees other advantages -- Dofasco will benefit by being associated with a large company with a broad geographic base, ensuring its fortunes aren't tied only to North America.

sarnold@thespec.com

905-526-3496

 

 

 

How steelmakers measure up

DOFASCO

* Canada's largest manufacturer of flat rolled steels

* Founded 1912

* 7,400 Hamilton employees

* No union, employee profit sharing instead of defined pension plan

* Annual steel production, approximately 5.5- million tons

* Third-quarter earnings -- $5.2-million Cdn, down from $115-million Cdn a year earlier

* Major customers -- 40 per cent of total shipments are to the auto industry

* Total Shares outstanding -- 77.4 million

* Share price, Toronto Stock Exchange -- closed yesterday at $59.05, up 34 per cent.

ARCELOR

* World's second-largest steel producer, after Mittal Steel Co.

* Leading supplier of flat carbon steels, with 15 per cent share of the world market

* Created in 2002 by amalgamating three steelmakers, Aceralia, Arbed and Usinor

* 95,000 employees in more than 60 countries

* Some unionized workplaces, a range of employee benefits

* Annual steel production approximately 47- million tons

* Third-quarter earnings -- $792-million U.S., up from $758-million U.S. a year earlier

* Total Shares outstanding-   640 million